Abstract: Can one make deep inferences about a person based only on observations of how she acts? I discuss methodology for inverse modeling in behavioral sciences, where the goal is to estimate a cognitive model from limited behavioral data. Given substantial diversity in people’s intentions, strategies and abilities, this is a difficult problem and previously unaddressed. I discuss advances achieved with an approach that combines (1) computational rationality, to predict how a person adapts to a task when her capabilities are known, and (2) Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to estimate those capabilities. The benefit is that model parameters are conditioned on both prior knowledge and observations, which improves model validity and helps identify causes for observations. Inverse modeling methods can advance theory-formation by bringing complex behavior within reach of modeling. This talk is based on on-going collaborations with Antti Kangasraasio, Samuel Kaski, Jukka Corander, Andrew Howes, Kumaripaba Athukorala, Jussi Jokinen, Sayan Sarcar, and Xiangshi Ren.

Speaker: Antti Oulasvirta

Affiliation: Associate Professor, Aalto University

Place of Seminar: University of Helsinki